picaridin toxicity cats
This can be helped by gently rinsing out the mouth, or offering the cat some water or milk to take away the bad taste. Chelation therapy is a therapy often performed with metal toxicity. doesn't kill insects. When you call, it is best to have as much information as possible to guide the veterinarian in a recommendation. Scientists think that picaridin Toxicity often occurs when cats lick their feet after walking though the ice melt, and less often from licking the ground or climbing into the ice-melt container. 495 0 obj <>stream The following plants and flowers can be dangerous for your cat: All parts of this plant are toxic. Organophosphates and carbamates both inhibit cholinesterases enzymes; giving both at the same time is likely a toxic dose of insecticide. Permethrin is a synthetic pesticide that's similar to natural compounds found in chrysanthemums. Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience. rev2023.3.3.43278. Manuel Breva Colmeiro/Getty Images 2016 Mar;27(1):153-63. doi: 10.1016/j.wem.2015.11.007. http://npic.orst.edu/factsheets/PicaridinGen.html. Consequently, acetylcholine remains attached to the postsynaptic receptors of the neurons causing continuous, unending nervous transmission to nervous tissue, organs and muscles (smooth and skeletal). Induced vomiting should always be done with the guidance of a veterinarian. It really helps a lot and you do not have to apply it again and again throughout the day. Foreign material on his hair or feet. Context: The U.S. EPA decided that picaridin is not likely to cause cancer based on long-term skin exposure studies Linear regulator thermal information missing in datasheet. Is it plausible for constructed languages to be used to affect thought and control or mold people towards desired outcomes? Below is a list of toxic ingredients you want to avoid altogether. 1 WHO reported LD 50 values of 2236 mg/kg and 4743 mg/kg in fasted and nonfasted male rats, respectively. Organophosphate types of these products are acephate, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, disulfoton, fonofos, malathion, parathion and terbufos. US consumers, accustomed to using DEET, did not pick up on the potential of Picaridin immediately. You will need to give a thorough history of your cat's health, onset of symptoms, and possible incidents that might have preceded this condition. It is never recommended to make your cat vomit at home. The prognosis for this toxicity is good if treatment is initiated before clinical signs develop. endstream endobj 471 0 obj <>stream Anticoagulant rodenticides are poisons used to kill mice, rats, and other rodents. This miniature palm tree is a very common yard plant, especially in the southern United States. had to travel a long way, but really sucks. Researchers applied large amounts of picaridin to the skin of rats and rabbits for up to two years to evaluate any picaridin toxicity cats. Similar things are true for trousers, shirts etc. If someone doesn't wash their Risks can be reduced by always reading the entire label and following all instructions. They are very sensitive to them, and some can be toxic, like the tea tree, citronella, and (some types of) peppermint oils in the above recipe! "Don't put the dog product on the cat," says Dr. Lisa Murphy, associate professor of toxicology at the University of Pennsylvania School of Veterinary Medicine. [20], Recent crystal and solution studies showed that icaridin binds to Anopheles gambiae odorant binding protein 1 (AgamOBP1). PMC Depending on how long it has been since your cat ingested the toxin (if exposure was via ingestion), you veterinarian may induce vomiting for your pet. I am afraid to use the ubiquitous DEET-based spray as it poisonous to cats (and my kittens are fairly small, so it doesn't take much). As you feared, DEET is out, 100%! ab2, aka cat lover, Edit in Response to Comment from @Wigwam: OOPS! Pyrethroid is permethrin are the most common topical flea and tick preparations. The biggest problem for cats is when they are exposed to highly concentrated permethrin products meant for use in dogs, she says. Lead poisoning in cats can occur from lead paint ingestion/inhalation or other sources, such as fishing weights, toys, and jewelry, and less commonly from automotive oils and lead glaze for pottery. Other reactions to watch for are drooling or pawing at the mouth. ;P46eG;|H]26Z4ez>{eL@:y;N tc#@6&~/oC_A,D]y yRFJ?7+06w picaridin toxicity cats. A.; Wegner, P.; Luukinen, B.; Buhl, K.; Stone, D. 2009. It varies depending on sport how good this answer is. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Careers. outdoors.stackexchange.com/questions/15740/, https://novacatclinic.com/how-can-i-protect-my-cat-from-mosquitos/, We've added a "Necessary cookies only" option to the cookie consent popup. picaridin toxicity cats. One strategy is to use whatever repellent you want, but, if it harmful to cats, thoroughly shower and wash your hair and change into uncontaminated clothes after your trip and before you get home. If you're concerned your cat may have been exposed to permethrin, the most common symptoms are skin irritations redness, itching and other signs of discomfort. Cats are more sensitive to permethrin than other mammals, but cat lovers can still use the insecticide as long they're careful about it, veterinarians say. Pyrethroids are not safe to use on cats. Picaridin was first registered for use by the United States Environmental Protection Agency in 2001. 1.800.858.7378 npic@ace.orst.edu de Andrade LRM, Guilger-Casagrande M, Germano-Costa T, de Lima R. Int J Mol Sci. Get practical pet health tips, articles, and insights from our veterinary community delivered weekly to your inbox. Heavy metals cause toxicity in cats including: Arsenic is a natural element found in the environment. Insect repellents you apply to skin include chemicals such as DEET and picaridin, as well as natural or synthetic plant oils. If the cat fights back, you can take it to the vet for a bath. If cats lick their feet and only ingest a small amount, signs that occur (drooling, vomiting, and diarrhea) often go away without medical intervention. *- One (becoming like the male roommate) has severe Asthma, and had troubles lately & her mother that was a smoker, but crazy about cleaning/appearance- hate people that care so much about appearance over functionally of concern for appearance & the other grew up with dominating his father that sprayed bug spray everywhere- cancer in family anyone & yet careless about cleaning after themselves, both are pro (even though it is ineffective) Raid spraying when see more than a couple of cockroaches, but not pro cleaning-up after themselves. [8], Icaridin-based products, first used in Europe in 2001, have been evaluated by Consumer Reports in 2016 as among the most effective insect repellents when used at a 20% concentration. You can safely use lavender oil and lavender scented products around your cat so long as it is not directly applied to their skin or digested. What happens to picaridin when it enters the body? Iran J Pharm Res. government site. If you know what type of toxin your pet was exposed to, or you have a sample of it, you should take a sample with you so that your doctor can better treat the poisoning. Picaridin is a relatively new repellent. [21], Recent evidence with Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes suggests icaridin does not strongly activate olfactory receptors neurons, but instead functions to reduce the volatility of the odorants to which it is mixed. Organophosphate toxicity in cats may last two to four weeks, but most patients will fully recover with the aid of aggressive care. Thanks! had heavier livers. hands after applying an insect repellent and then smokes or handles To subscribe to this RSS feed, copy and paste this URL into your RSS reader. Trade names include Bayrepel and Saltidin among others. Grape/raisin toxicity can cause life-threatening kidney damage and/or kidney failure. There are four ways that people can be exposed to chemicals: contacting Aerogard. Addendum: See the answer of @Alexander, which, IMO is the simplest and most elegant and most foolproof way to safeguard the kittens. I use plant-based solutions. But if you see signs of neurological problems tremors, twitching or shaking it's time to take the cat to the vet right away. to talk to us or create & mail a letter to roommates. Cholinesterases are enzymes which break down acetylcholine, which is a neurotransmitter. There is a lot documented on the items mentioned above, including scientific studies that show they do indeed repel bugs. Easier said than done, [22] By reducing odor volatility, icaridin functions to "mask" the ability of volatile odorants on the skin to activate olfactory neurons and attract mosquitoes.[22]. HHS Vulnerability Disclosure, Help If any exposures occur, be sure to follow the First Connect and share knowledge within a single location that is structured and easy to search. The study has been regarded as invalid by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency,[14][15] which has evaluated icaridin prior to its approval under the EU Biocidal Product Regulation. MeSH Primary symptoms across all insect repellent exposures included ocular irritation/pain, vomiting, red eye/conjunctivitis, and oral irritation. picaridin toxicity cats. picaridin toxicity cats. Food mold, also known as Penicillium spp., is a fungus that grows on aging food. Aerogard safe cat !. Even today, tried to call the Hyperthyroid Med. Life is hard, it's harder if you're stupid We live in a rural Ag. Fun fact: Piper is the latin word for pepper. If there's one thing we're grateful for on Shots, it's our passionate, engaged audience. Your cat might require a blood transfusion. Anti-inflammatory medicationsAdvil, Aleve, Motrin (NSAIDs). Thanks for your comment, Geminis Cat Butler. If you keep this in mind when selecting clothes you can reduce chemical repellants a lot (I hardly use them at all). [5], On 23 July 2020, icaridin was approved again by the EU Commission for use in repellent products. It is in the piperidine chemical family. spots. Picaridin is often used directly on skin. Please read In humans, less than 6% of the picaridin applied to skin was absorbed. NPIC fact sheets are designed to answer questions that are commonly You may notice your cat has pale or yellow gums, and blood in the urine, which are signs of this illness. 2022 Jul 27;23(15):8317. doi: 10.3390/ijms23158317. A lot of pet lovers will opt for more natural insect repellents which is a great idea in general but just because the label reads natural doesnt mean it is safe. Hi Censored! Never apply full strength lavender essential oil to the skin, it can cause irritation. The longer you wait and the more symptoms that develop, the worse the prognosis will be. Piperine (a derivative of piperidine) is what gives pepper its pungent smell. These forms of vitamin D are also found in topical psoriasis medications and improperly formulated pet-food diets, either commercially produced or homemade. But exposure to insecticides -- especially after heavy or repeated applications of the chemicals -- may be toxic to cats. Always follow label instructions and take steps to avoid exposure. Do new devs get fired if they can't solve a certain bug? Poisoning occurs when cats ingest rat or mouse poison containing either form of vitamin Dcholecalciferol rodenticides. Check the concentration and use only as instructed. They are so crazy busy lately, they were out of stock for our Hypothyroid cats parasite med. This causes your cat to be in pain and potentially not want to eat or drink. Unauthorized use of these marks is strictly prohibited. Be sure to read labels if you are purchasing a traditional bug spray from a store. This highly toxic plant causes serious kidney disease and death. The commercial material contains a mixture of all four stereoisomers. The approval entered into force on 1 February 2022 and is valid for ten years. Most were from concerned cat owners. The technical is not a dermal sensitizer. Is there a single-word adjective for "having exceptionally strong moral principles"? sprays are used around the body, especially in indoor spaces where What type of mosquito repellent is most effective? Organophosphate toxicity, meanwhile, may lead to chronic anorexia, muscle weakness and muscle twitching which may last for days or even weeks. My only reservation -- will you do this as fanatically as necessary for the kittens? If in rats and mice. In humans, less than 6% of the Cats have been reported to shows signs of toxicity not only with fresh, raw produce but also foods containing dehydrated flakes, powders, and dry onion soup mixes. Thanks for contributing an answer to The Great Outdoors Stack Exchange! will bind to soil where bacteria will break it down. Even then, if there aren't any complications, "the prognosis for a full recovery is excellent," Murphy says. The site is secure. Out of concern, though, I want to mention that from what Im noticing in other sources Lavender appears to be toxic to cats! Caffeine is a stimulant, and the same stimulant effects that help humans stay awake can cause toxicity in cats. Primary symptoms across all insect repellent exposures included ocular irritation/pain, vomiting, red eye/conjunctivitis, and oral irritation. . It's also biodegradable, making it much safer for the environment. Toxins that do not have a specific antidote are treated with supportive care through medications and supplements to correct symptoms and keep any more of the toxin from being absorbed into the system. It forms a defensive barrier on the skin which can take 15-30 . food, it is possible that they may swallow some picaridin. But if you DIY from a bottle you buy at Wal-Mart, that can survive 5 or 6 washings. What can a lawyer do if the client wants him to be acquitted of everything despite serious evidence? There were no effects on the offspring of the treated rats and rabbits. Please cite as: Gervais, J. The crystal structure of AgamOBP1icaridin complex (PDB: 5EL2) revealed that icaridin binds to the DEET-binding site in two distinct orientations and also to a second binding site (sIC-binding site) located at the C-terminal region of the AgamOBP1. Can picaridin affect birds, fish, and other wildlife? It was made to resemble the natural compound Having potted lavender on your deck or patio is a great way to keep bugs away from your house. What should I use as mosquito repellent? Leave a comment below and tell us! The Great Outdoors Stack Exchange is a question and answer site for people who love being outdoors enjoying nature and wilderness, and learning about the required skills and equipment. This very serious toxicity is considered more serious in kittens than older cats, as it creates lead deposits in the bones, over time. Keywords: This site needs JavaScript to work properly. but not in water that had been treated. Commercial products containing icaridin include Cutter Advanced, Muskol, Skin So Soft Bug Guard Plus, Off! Icaridin contains two stereocenters: one where the hydroxyethyl chain attaches to the ring, and one where the sec-butyl attaches to the oxygen of the carbamate. Salt toxicity is not common, but it does occur in cats if they ingest products high in sodium chloride, such as table scraps, homemade play dough, rock salt, paintballs, table salt, sea water, and enema solutions containing sodium phosphate. [12], A 2018 study found that a commercial repellent product containing 20% icaridin, in what the authors described as "conservative exposure doses", is highly toxic to salamander larvae.[13]. Signs of this toxicity include: If left untreated, this toxin can potentially cause lifelong kidney damage, and even death. Severe clinical signs include irregular heartbeats and seizures. There was no information available on long-term exposure to picaridin in people. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the 0 I Depending on the amount of zinc ingested, and how long the exposure has been occurring, this toxicity can lead to fatal destruction of the bodys red blood cellsa condition called hemolysis. But if you DIY from a bottle you buy at Wal-Mart, that can survive 5 or 6 washings.". It may also be inhaled when Fishing, yes. The PubMed wordmark and PubMed logo are registered trademarks of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Iron toxicity can occur if your cat ingests an iron supplement medication commonly taken by people for low-iron medical conditions. Each medication can cause severe toxicity and even death. To be extra cautious, don't leave permethrin-treated clothing near where your cat sleeps. Areas that are geographically prone to heavy flea and tick infestations tend to use many different forms of insecticide (e.g., organophosphates and carbamates). children may be especially sensitive to pesticides, Oregon State What happens to picaridin when it enters the body? There are several options on the market that use either citronella or geraniol or a combination of both, and I find they work well enough for my needs. Accessibility Picaridin however, doesn't work the same way DEET does. Its very important to let the vet know when the ingestion or exposure took place, the name of the product, the amount ingested or applied to the cat, and the clinical signs youve witnessed. Yes, it can. Knowing the above, I tried http://www.DuckDuckGo.org to search for it & spent time going through the information (none about effects on Hyperthyroid cats & bug spray, just side effects in general on us and other animals; at least I was able to start leaving the windows open) & sending E-Mails to the retired roommates from retirement & rehabilitation & teaching fields-they are educated & Dem. I also ty to avoid chemical mosquito repellents, but I am quite successful with appropriate clothing to repel mosquitos. They said even dry clothes can be dangerous if a cat might chew on them, especially a kitten. If your cat was exposed to a toxin on the skin, bathing it to remove the toxin is highly recommended, if you can do it safely. [7] According to the WHO, icaridin demonstrates excellent repellent properties comparable to, and often superior to, those of the standard DEET. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends using repellents based on icaridin, DEET, ethyl butylacetylaminopropionate (IR3535), or oil of lemon eucalyptus (containing p-menthane-3,8-diol, PMD) for effective protection against mosquitoes that carry the West Nile virus, eastern equine encephalitis and other illnesses. Cats are exposed to this toxin when they eat moldy food directly out of the household trash or find it outside. We don't use them, but it does get frustrating. almost all of it in their urine within a day of exposure. Picaridin is an insect repellent that is applied directly to the skin. Many of the ingredients found in common insect repellents are considered toxic for your cat to inhale. The toxin can also be inhaled if your cat comes into close contact with it, even without eating the fungus. picaridin toxicity cats. san jose state basketball recruiting; 5 types of imagery in the pedestrian. Someorganophosphate insecticides commonly used include coumaphos, cyothioate, diazinon, fampfhur, fention, phosmet, and tetrachlorvinphos. Even though cats tend to be picky eaters and dont eat toxins as readily as dogs, they are curious creatures. Toxicity can occur due to the overuse, misuse, or use of multiple cholinesterase-inhibiting insecticides; overexposure to insecticides in the surrounding home environment; the misuse of organophosphate insecticides in cats (e.g., organophosphate-containing dips labeled for dogs only, inappropriately applied to cats); or the intentional application of house or yard insecticides on cats. Products containing Picaridin first became available . (last Saturday), promised to call when it comes back in (hopefully, tomorrow or Thursday of this week) and we cannot get a hold of them by phone, have to leave messages to call back, which have yet, gotten a call back about, really have to drive to them (luckily, 15-Mins. Prevent mosquito bites: insect repellent patch or just eat vitamin B1? repellent in Europe and Australia, but has only been available in the Regul Toxicol Pharmacol. Avoid using insecticides -- flea or tick treatments -- on sick or debilitated cats, as it will affect the body more easily because of the weakened immune system. For things that are safe, how about an ingredient that actually works picaridin. This therapy involves special agents, given by injection or by mouth, to attract the metal and bind to it in your cats bloodstream. U.S. EPA. The EPA states that picaridin did not show any toxicologically significant effects in animal studies. Also, do you have objections to using "natural" products with essential oils instead of chemicals? As with most metal toxicity, gastrointestinal signs occur first and can progress to neurological conditions, such as weakness/lethargy and seizures. To protect yourself on the go, mix some lavender essential oil in your favorite skin lotion or in a carrier oil like coconut, olive, or sesame and apply it to your skin. Unfortunately, this medication is toxic to cats and should never be given to them under any circumstances. "This is good advice, but know that you can't easily wash permethrin out of clothes. Int J Mol Sci. If exposure to the toxin came through the skin, your veterinarian will use specialized wash for removing the residue from the hair and skin of your pet. Even medications approved for pets can be toxic if the cat ingests too high a dose. "Permethrin is very toxic to cats," wrote Charles Fischer, who lives in Chapel Hill, N.C. "Suggesting that people spray their garments with permethrin to prevent tick bites without a cat disclaimer is very dangerous. Hiking, maybe, depends on how much heat you need to shed. Ice melts are often made with sodium chloride, potassium chloride, and/or magnesium chloride, which can cause a severe increase in the bodys sodium levels. Additionally, these are designed to be used in your cat's environment and NOT to be sprayed directly on your cat as they can be toxic and harmful if ingested or inadvertently sprayed in their eyes or mouth. It only takes a minute to sign up. #X8-83560101). endstream endobj 472 0 obj <>stream The signs of toxicity are similar to those in humans and include: Cats who have ingested a small amount of alcohol may sleep it off, as most people do. 467 0 obj <> endobj There aren't a lot of options, but there's more wiggle-room if you won't be with your cats while you're using your mosquito repellent. Epub 2016 Jan 27. . Picaridin is moderately toxic to fish. "Some cats will be so sensitive that even just casual contact with a dog that's been treated will be enough to cause clinical signs, including tremors, seizures and in the worst-case scenario death," she says. 2022 Aug 26;23(17):9696. doi: 10.3390/ijms23179696. THANK YOU for the info of insecticides to avoid around cats. When a cat is poisoned, a wide range of symptoms may occur, from minor skin irritation to death. Further treatment may include an oxygen cage if your pet is having trouble breathing, and fluid therapy if your pet has been unable to drink or is anorexic. Essential oils are not all-natural products. Chrysanthemum, daisy, mum (Crysanthemum spp.). And it may seem obvious, but if you're using a permethrin soak for your clothes, make sure the cat doesn't drink from the bucket. Is permethrin safe for cats after it dries? Lilies are the most common plant toxicity in cats. A study performed in 2010 showed that picaridin spray and cream at the 20% concentration provided 12 hours of protection against ticks. Minimising the environmental effects of my dyson brain. properties. I do not know what else I can do, our NEW local commissioner (which by the way is a position that declaring what party one is a part is not allowed & previous good to an extent commissioner is now mayor of our county ) office always tells me to handle problems myself (which I have had to do multiple times, just recently, yet all except one, I have not received any communications back) & state agencies make it near impossible to get anything done- like trying to get our water tested -for free!- from underground aquifer (sp? The information in this publication does not in any way InChI=1S/C12H23NO3/c1-3-10(2)16-12(15)13-8-5-4-6-11(13)7-9-14/h10-11,14H,3-9H2,1-2H3, InChI=1/C12H23NO3/c1-3-10(2)16-12(15)13-8-5-4-6-11(13)7-9-14/h10-11,14H,3-9H2,1-2H3, Except where otherwise noted, data are given for materials in their, Journal of Drugs in Dermatology (Jan-Feb 2004), "Insect repellents: which keep bugs at bay? Ticks, fleas, lice and mosquitoes do carry lots of diseases that permethrin and other insecticides can help prevent, she says: "All sorts of things that we wouldn't wish on ourselves or our pets.". HWmo6n|t;,7CY/^ 3>]-.o'L+p7T|!qQxajRw]sx$Wzu(f{$d#z.|0@Z WW\Bdj"(^_V3I*Fgnt1RNu~i:40F@01O5-uB!I=. look at the use of permethrin-treated clothing, To Repel Ticks, Try Spraying Your Clothes With A Pesticide That Mimics Mums. An unusual odor, especially a chemical smell, to his hair, breath, vomitus, or feces. biting flies, ticks, fleas, and chiggers. -y' 7;O$RL4|x;>nfs(}@b~R\S(2dB~(i1T#LrvLI*(AZZ5)OU|m>_]5/u\d~69|~_guCrH.U*68S-[(2Un7zU +a.>ey5XH}cuJ"[ ozO'oJX8";=Rp8`XKS tFUk%M1kCID#OF-@t@?~%@>sXWi"QAyGXar% /d+p-L%G1PA1E( Are children more sensitive to picaridin than adults? Is it suspicious or odd to stand by the gate of a GA airport watching the planes? registered to repel or train dogs & cats, but not formulated for use as insect repellents. These products may be pump This will keep night time (and even daytime) insects away from you without having to apply anything directly to your skin or clothes. Increased rate of breathing or heavy panting, Icterusa yellowing of the skin and other normally white areas of the body, including the eyes and the gums. Certain heavy metals can be seen by your veterinarian on an X-ray, which can aid in diagnosis and treatment. While the toxic principle in grapes is not completely understood, any ingestion of grapes by a cat is considered potentially toxic and should be treated as an emergency. community, with 1-Vet. [19], A potential odorant receptor for icaridin (and DEET), the CquiOR136CquiOrco, has been suggested recently for Culex quinquefasciatus mosquito. Chocolate toxicity in cats becomes more severe as the amount of cocoa increases. Pyrethrin and/or pyrethroid, are ingredients in some flea/tick medications (topical sprays, dips, shampoos, preventions, etc.) to end up in ground water based on how it is used and its physical Rats and humans excrete How do I align things in the following tabular environment? This plant contains saponins, and when chewed or ingested, any part of the plant is toxic to cats. This toxin is made in a variety of preparations: hard blocks, soft bait (similar to a chew treat), pellets, powders, grains/meals, and even liquid formulations. It has been reported that cats are attracted to a smell or flavor in the human antidepressant Effexor, causing it to be one of the top toxins reported in cats. NPIC is a cooperative agreement There is no published evidence on whether or not picaridin is safe for cats, only dogs. Scientists found picaridin in wastewater going into treatment plants This potentially fatal bleeding usually occurs inside the body and can go unrecognized until its too late. J Med Entomol. We certainly didn't want any cat catastrophes, so we decided to look into this a little further. . Toxicity occurs if your cat ingests the rat poison. Mountain biking, no. & staff (- that spends time with customers ) which has suffered greatly because of COVID-19 & Its Variants. Field evaluation of repellent formulations containing deet and picaridin against mosquitoes in Northern Territory, Australia. [11] Consumer Reports retests in 2006 gave as result that a 7% solution of icaridin offered little or no protection against Aedes mosquitoes (vector of dengue fever) and a protection time of about 2.5 hours against Culex (vector of West Nile virus), while a 15% solution was good for about one hour against Aedes and 4.8 hours against Culex. Doing so can cause additional severe symptoms and make the current problem much worse. "They may be scratching, digging and rolling because it's uncomfortable.". >>>>>Yes, it can. Lavender is a toxin to cats in a concentrated state such as essential oil when applied directly to a cats skin. Can I tell police to wait and call a lawyer when served with a search warrant? Together, these substances are called methylxanthines and are very dangerous to cats. I would of course try to avoid overexposing your cat to it due to thier grooming behaviors, i dont think incidental contact with you after outdoor activities will pose a strong risk.